We are less than three months away from this year’s commemoration of #EndSARS – a series of online and physical demonstrations that began with a call for an end to a special unit of the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) that had become synonymous with brutality. Nigerian youths have again poured into the streets of Lagos (the hotbed of social activism), the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and nearly 30 other states. Dozens of deaths have already been recorded in different parts of the country. What was supposed to be a peaceful demonstration has turned into a battlefield between protesters and security forces. In 2020, #EndSARS quickly became a platform for mobilising young people to demand social justice. Today, the demands of Nigerians are much the same. But tribalism stands in the way of social justice.
Protest for economic justice
A few days before the planned protests, President Tinubu signed the N70,000 minimum wage into law, hoping that the more than 100 per cent increase in the national wage floor would appease angry citizens. But with the government, the only employer in Nigeria that complies with the minimum wage law, employing only an estimated 1.2 million people, or about two per cent of Nigeria’s working class, the measure has not moved the needle.
Moreover, many Nigerians have dismissed the wage increase as self-defeating, given the high rate of inflation in the economy and a gross discount to the jumbo salaries and allowances of political office holders. Indeed, workers would have to be paid over N132,000 or 190 per cent of the new minimum wage to realise the dollar value of the wage floor from 2019, the last time it was adjusted. At that time, one dollar was exchanged for N360. With the pro-market foreign exchange reform led by the Tinubu administration, the dollar has risen to over N1600/$. So, in reality, the monthly minimum wage has fallen from $83 in 2019 to around $44, despite its upward review.
The general price level has also almost tripled since 2019, from 283 to 750 points, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), suggesting that the minimum wage would have to be raised by almost 200 per cent to have a serious impact on welfare losses. Food prices, which make daily headlines, have risen even faster, with some economists arguing that real, independently calculated figures would put inflation at over 100 per cent, as opposed to the official 40.9 per cent. Coupled with the worsening business climate, increasing cases of kidnapping and forms of insecurity, ‘japa’ – a local word used to explain the rate at which Nigerians, young and old, are fleeing in search of greener pastures – has increased since Tinubu took office. The government has embarked on a series of economic reforms – from fuel subsidy removal to exchange rate reform, from energy tariff adjustment to tax reform. However, the net impact of these largely extroversive policies has been negative, manifested mainly in the escalation of the cost of living crisis and the collapse of businesses.
These are the main issues raised by Nigerians as the #EndBadGovernance protest enters its second week.
The tribalisation of national distress
The quest for national consensus on key issues remains elusive as many Nigerians see every political struggle through the lens of their tribal affiliation, a challenge fuelled by ethnic-based rotational leadership. Hence, the extreme tribalisation of political discourse has been a major dominant factor in who participates in what in recent years. For instance, Tinubu was least popular in the South-East, the geopolitical zone of one of the top three contenders in the 2023 election, Peter Obi. However, the five states that make up the zone have stayed out of the protests (for fear of being victimised). Some of the market associations, dominated by the Igbo, the socio-cultural group that dominates the south-east, had earlier issued statements that they would not participate in the protests, with some warning protesters to stay away from the markets.
During #EndSARS, the core northern states staged a pro-government demonstration. But with ex-President Muhammadu Buhari out of the presidential office and power returning to the South, the tide has turned, with northern states leading the campaign against bad governance, which the government narrowly interpreted as aimed at changing the Tinubu administration. Clearly, Nigeria’s tribal divisions run deeper than any cut inflicted on Nigerians by bad governance, which the current protest seeks to end. This was not always the case.
From the pre-colonial nationalists, the anti-military juntas activists, to the 2010 political struggle to install ex-President Goodluck Jonathan as a substantive president when the late President Umaru Yar’Adua was on his deathbed, Nigerian ‘freedom fighters’ from all walks of life have risen above ethnic and religious sentiments to forge a national consensus – a reason why mass actions could not be dismissed as tribal struggles. For example, the founding fathers of modern Nigeria – Herbert Macaulay, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Aminu Kano, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Ahmadu Bello, Alvan Ikoku, Obafemi Awolowo, Anthony Enahoro and their contemporaries – came from different parts of the country to form alliances to fight for the emancipation of Nigeria. The troika of Awolowo, Azikiwe and Bello, who negotiated Nigeria’s independence from Britain, had their roots in the three major ethnic groups that make up the country. Sadly, the era of national consensus seems to have passed – the main reason why the current protests may not bring about the desired change.
Ahead of the protests, Vice President Kashim Shettima branded the participants as idiots who had not learnt from the experiences of Syria and Libya. The president, on his part, warned Nigerians against allowing themselves to be used by ‘enemies of democracy’ to promote an unconstitutional agenda that will set the country back on its democratic journey. Other government officials have argued that the Tinubu-led reforms will turn around the country’s fortunes in the not-too-distant future. It’s unclear whether such an argument will have any effect on the protesters in a context where millions of Nigerians are still worried about where their next meal will come from. All this suggests that Nigeria’s leaders are not inclined to make concessions to appease the protesters.
Finally, beyond the ethnic colouration and overt politicisation, this is more a war between revolution sceptics and revolution enthusiasts than between pro- and anti-government activists. #EndSARS came close to the revolution Nigerians have been waiting for for decades, to get their pound of flesh from the political elite and secure a pro-people consensus. Its failure has created a divide between those Nigerians who believe that people power can bring about change through revolution and those who do not.
