For decades, Africa has clamoured for a seat on the United Nation’s Permanent Security Council, the organ that wields the most power in the organisation, with little success. The exclusion of Africa was seen as colonial, and antiquated, in a very different world where the continent with 18% of the world had no real clout.
Four of the five permanent members with veto power – China. France, Russia, and the United Kingdom – had several times in the past, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, supported Africa’s quest for a seat at the big table. Not the US.
Now, in a significant break, the US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield last Thursday formally said America supports creating two permanent UN Security Council seats for African states and one seat to be rotated among small island developing states.
News reports and analysts say the move comes as the US seeks to get back in the good books of Africa where it has been losing ground to geopolitical rivals China, Russia, and emerging regional powers like Turkey, India, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, the US is seen to be playing to deepen relations with Pacific Island nations, which is important to countering Chinese influence in the region. It is both a cynical and clever move in that sense, but it could delay Africa’s ascension to the Security Council if it becomes another political football between Washington and Beijing, if China thinks the US is trying to outflank it in the Pacific. This is not helped by the fact that the US also supports its allies Germany, India, and Japan getting permanent seats in the Security Council.
Earlier, Thomas-Greenfield said she couldn’t say how long it might take to get the General Assembly to vote on such a resolution, but, most importantly, she clarified that the US does not support expanding veto power beyond the five countries that currently hold it.
Africa’s victory would turn out to be a hollow one if the veto is kept to the five. It would effectively maintain the diplomatic apartheid that exists, as the continental representatives would be second-class members of the Security Council. More importantly, the UN has been in decline, especially when it comes to ensuring world peace. It has been hopeless in the Israel-Palestine war, particularly in protecting civilians, and failed in the Russia-Ukraine war. In the murderous war in Sudan, it has barked and not bitten, and in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has one of its longest-running, most ineffectual, and most expensive missions, and critics say it has undermined itself further by becoming partisan in the conflict.
The UN sometimes feeds the hungry, gets relief to victims of disasters, and does critical work supporting refugees, but no one is afraid of it anymore. Africa therefore could enter the Security Council like the guest who arrives at a party after the bar has closed and the DJ has already gone home with his music system.
Inside the Security Council, it will no longer be able to stand outside and guilt trip the old powers for being unjust, and extract victim ransom. Also, it will have to stop playing broke, and pony up serious money to fund solutions to the world’s problems.
However, before it gets there, it will have to contend with which countries get to take the two seats. It could be a fight that polarises Africa like nothing has in decades. There was a time when it would have been easier, with clear so-called anchor seats.
Egypt was the second most populous country in Africa and the power in North Africa, though challenged by Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya; Ethiopia was uncontested in the Horn of Africa; but in Greater East Africa Kenya was far out the leading economic power in East Africa; South Africa was in a different planet in Southern Africa and the most advanced and largest economy on the continent by a mile. Nigeria was badly governed and chaotic but was clearly the big boy in West Africa.
Fourteen years ago, it all ended. Libya went up in post-Arab Spring flames and NATO bombs. Egypt too was shaken up by the Arab Spring, jihadist violence, and governance chaos and has been overtaken by Ethiopia as the continent’s second most populous country. More recently, Ethiopia imploded with the war in Tigray, though it overtook Kenya as the largest economy in Greater East Africa. Tanzania is sniping at Kenya’s economic heels, and landlocked relatively small countries like Rwanda and Uganda, have risen in the last 15 years as significant military and geopolitical powers.
Meanwhile, as South Africa’s economy rotted away in corruption and incompetence, it has been trading places with Nigeria and Egypt as the leading economy on the continent. Though it has grown into a major economy, Nigeria’s energy has been sapped by insurgencies, lawlessness, and corruption. Recently, when Nigeria led the regional bloc ECOWAS to suspend Niger and threaten the military leaders that had seized power unconstitutionally with sanctions, Niger scoffed at them. It joined coup makers Mali and Burkina Faso, suspended earlier, to form a new regional grouping, and refused to go back when a chastened ECOWAS offered them a back door in. It would have been unthinkable to be dismissive of Nigeria like that barely 10 years ago.
Just like with the UN, because no one is afraid of the anchor states any more, the campaign for who gets on the Security Council will have to be messy. One way to avoid tensions would be to rally behind President Kagame’s proposal: a seat for the AU Commission and a rotating seat for African countries.
In any case, Africa can make gold of this opportunity. The UN Security Council is a bigger megaphone, and the continent will be heard more, even if it might still be ignored. Its demographic edge also holds great possibilities. Not only is Africa the world’s youngest continent, but its working-age population (20-64 years) will increase from 883 million in 2024 to 1.6 billion in 2050 and constitute almost 25% of the global working-age population. Africa is one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets and is projected to boast 1.7 billion consumers by 2030. The conversion of that into real-world power could hand the Permanent UN Security members a sword they can wield. And as with all sword fights, can best get to your target at close range, not standing by standing far out in the cold.
