There are, perhaps, more theories explaining President Donald Trump’s tariffs than he has changed the tariff structures since he assumed office.
First is the belief that the President sees tariffs as a necessary replacement for potential revenue loss due to his planned tax cuts; hence, he will tariff every country.
Another stream of thought suggests that Trump, who loathes weakness, views the United States trade deficit as a sign of weakness that must be addressed through tariffs.
Yet another school of thought considers tariffs as the President’s stick-and-carrot weapon, while others say his administration will tariff everything except commodities which the country needs direly to power the dreamed industrial renaissance.
As his rhetoric reflects all these theories, what remains is consistency to validate them. For one, the White House changes its position on specific policy thrusts as frequently as one changes attire – a kind of policy flip-flop.
Supposing the stick-and-carrot approach and commodity export exemptions are pillars of the tariff programme, as suggested by the latest radical changes, Africa, indeed, has a leeway.
Firstly, African exports to the U.S. do not approach what Trump would describe as unfair global trade. For many African countries, the U.S. is not an important export destination, which means the continent could well pretend there is no such country as the U.S. in their trade analysis and planning.
For instance, last year, Africa’s total goods trade with the U.S. was $71.6 billion, according to information provided by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Africa, excluding the northern region (Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia), exported goods valued at $39.5 billion while importing goods worth $32.1 billion, bringing the composite trade surplus to $7.4 billion. If South Africa, which had a trade surplus of $8.8 billion, is removed from the equation, the rest of Africa’s deficit against the U.S. would be $1.8 billion.
And what does South Africa, which holds the entire trade balance credited to Africa, export to the U.S.? Its major exports are precious stones (which fall under commodities), steel, and cars (mainly German-owned BMW). South Africa’s total exports to the U.S. last year were $14.7 billion—just 3.7 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the leading African economy.
Nigeria, the second African country with the biggest trade surplus against the U.S., recorded $9.9 billion in bilateral trade with the superpower last year, a 61.4 per cent increase from $4.2 billion in 2023. The trade surplus—a reason Nigerian goods may have been subjected to 14 per cent tariffs in the latest reciprocal decision—stood at $1.5 billion.
These figures are insignificant when compared to U.S. trade with Canada, Mexico, and China. Last year, for example, Mexico’s exports to the U.S. were valued at $505.9 billion—about 13 times the value of Africa’s total exports to the country—while the U.S. deficit was $171.8 billion. U.S. trade with Canada, a neighbouring country with about three per cent of Africa’s population, exceeded $760 billion—over tenfold that of Africa.
Both Mexico and Canada have sufficient reasons to panic over unbearable U.S. tariffs, but not Africa. In terms of the percentage of trade to GDP, Canada’s exports to the U.S. last year amounted to 16.4 per cent, while Mexico’s were about 13 per cent—indicating how a trade disruption with Trump’s U.S. could affect the two countries. For Africa, however, its exports to the U.S. last year were less than three per cent of the GDP, which is erroneously (owing to the dominance of the undocumented informal sector) estimated at $1.4 trillion. Why, then, should Africa panic over the tariff war?
There is another obvious reason why it need not. Many African countries export primary commodities that have undergone very little processing but require further processing in destination countries, according to a report by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). These include crude and non-energy commodities such as coffee, copper, maize, palm oil, platinum, gold, soybeans, rubber, and tin, which the U.S. or any other Western country could only tariff at its peril.
In this wisdom, Trump has exempted copper, energy, and other minerals from the sweeping tariff executive order that has been interpreted as the beginning of the end of free trade. Perhaps, going forward, Trump will expand the exemption to include all commodities often exported by African traders, thereby giving the continent a breather amid ongoing economic self-preservation.
The U.S.’s steep tariff increase came barely four months after China lifted tariffs on 140 products for 33 African countries classified as least developed countries (LDCs)—a policy that took effect on 1 December 2024. Affected commodities include rice, wheat, sugar, cotton, soybean oil, cigarettes, timber, wool, paper, and many other raw or semi-raw commodities.
This was not the first time China implemented tariff-free policies for African countries. In 2003, during the second edition of the Ministerial Conference Forum on China-African Cooperation (FOCAC), China granted zero tariffs on 190 products from 30 African LDCs. Since 2005, all African LDCs have benefited from some form of tariff-free treatment at different times, according to a note by Development Reimagined, a China-based think tank.
The FOCAC Ministerial Conference, held every three years, is one of China’s deliberate efforts to deepen trade. Since 2000, when the first conference was held, trade between Africa and the Asian giant has grown in leaps, pushing the U.S. to the fringe. Last year alone, trade rose to $295.5 billion—four times the value of trade between Africa and the U.S.—and over 21 per cent of the continent’s total economy. A decision that threatens this relationship will matter more to Africans than Trump’s ongoing shenanigans.
