As the year turns its page, it’s become a jolly tradition to spill the beans from the crystal balls of geopolitical wizards, economic sorcerers, the high priests of risk analysis, grizzled sports scribes, dazzling innovators, and those who read the future in tea leaves, all to guess what’s in store for Africa in the year ahead.
For 2025, I’ve called upon the digital oracle, AI, which, let’s be honest, just gobbles up what human gurus post online to predict what might be the next big thing, twist, or turn. We’ve added a splash of human feel in editing AI’s sometimes bizarre and cheeky forecasts, weeding out the most outlandish, while keeping the wild cards for their volatility value (like suggesting Uganda might see a coup in 2024 – no way, Okello, not in the foreseeable future). We’ve asked our questions in various guises to squeeze out the most accurate predictions. We’ll tally up how well AI did by the end of December 2025:
WHICH African countries are likely to have a coup or an attempted one in 2025?
(Cameroon, Congo [Brazzaville], Equatorial Guinea, and Uganda considered high risk)
Foreseeing a coup in Africa for 2025 is chaotic and unpredictable. Yet, with a bit of historical hindsight and a dash of current political tea leaves, here’s what we can chew on:
Countries with a history of coups, like Burkina Faso, the self-proclaimed “coup capital of Africa” with ten attempts since independence, are always on the watch list. But coups are a bit like lightning, they can strike where you least expect.
The Sahel region, with states like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, has seen a revival of coups, thanks to a cocktail of security nightmares, economic headaches, and governance issues.
Nations where the bigwigs have overstayed their welcome or where the populace and military are itching for change might be coup magnets. Think of places where elections are more of a circus or where leaders play fast and loose with term limits.
External powers or regional clubs like ECOWAS can either put the brakes on or accidentally pour petrol on the fire. Their reactions or inaction can make or break the chances of a coup.
Cameroon, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, and Uganda are flagged for potential political upheaval due to murky succession plans or simmering economic and political unrest.
WHICH elections in Africa should we keep our eyes peeled for in 2025, and why?
(Keep eyes out on Gabon, Ivory Coast, Malawi, and Tanzania)
After the 2023 coup, Gabon’s 2025 elections are the political equivalent of watching paint dry – but with the added thrill of whether it’ll dry into democracy or dictatorship. The military has promised elections, setting up a high-stakes game of who’s who in the new political order. With a new constitution that’s like a maze of term limits and eligibility, it’s anyone’s guess how the power will shuffle.
In Ivory Coast, the question of whether President Alassane Ouattara will throw his hat in the ring again could either calm the waters or stir up a political storm.
Malawi’s election could either cement its democratic journey or reveal cracks in the foundation, depending on how they handle their economic and governance challenges.
Tanzania’s election is the first big test for President Samia Suluhu Hassan after John Magufuli’s sudden exit in March 2021. It’ll be telling whether she can steer the country’s economic ship or if it’ll hit stormy seas.
WHICH unlikely countries could qualify for the Africa Cup of Nation (AFCON) 2025-2026? It will take place in Morocco from December 21, 2025, to January 18, 2026.
(Don’t be surprised to see Eswatini, Botswana, Mauritania, Libya, or Lesotho showing up)
Guessing which “dark horse” will gallop into AFCON 2025-2026 involves looking at past performances, the current football scene, and some hopeful thinking. Here’s a peek at potential surprises:
Historically, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) has not been a regular participant in AFCON. Their last appearance was in 2003. However, with a new generation of players and improved performances in recent qualifiers, they could be considered an unlikely contender. Their national team, known as “Sihlangu Semnikati” (The King’s Shield), has shown some progress, particularly in matches against stronger teams.
Botswana has only qualified once for AFCON, in 2012. They have shown occasional glimpses of brilliance, particularly with players like Lemponye Tshireletso and Kabelo Dambe, who have had successful club careers abroad. If they can harness this talent and improve their tactical approach, Botswana might surprise many by qualifying.
While Mauritania has qualified for AFCON in recent years (2019 and 2021), their football infrastructure and historical performance would still categorise them as an “unlikely” qualifier for many. Their recent participation shows growth, but they would still be considered an outside bet due to the competitive nature of the qualifiers.
Libya has had its footballing journey disrupted by internal conflicts, leading to a lack of consistent participation in major tournaments. Despite this, they have a history of football talent. If political stability improves and they can focus on football development, Libya could potentially make an unexpected return to AFCON.
Known as “Likuena” (The Crocodiles), Lesotho has never qualified for AFCON. However, recent performances have been promising under coach Leslie Notši, with the team showing more competitive spirit in regional tournaments like COSAFA Cup. An unexpected qualification would hinge on significant improvement and perhaps some luck in the draw.
It’s worth noting that “unlikely” here refers to historical context and current football rankings rather than an absolute impossibility. Football can be unpredictable, and with the right combination of talent, coaching, and a favourable group stage draw, any country could theoretically qualify.
WHAT new conflicts or escalation of existing ones might we witness in Africa in 2025?
(Worry about Sudan, Ethiopia vs. Eritrea, DRC, spill-overs from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and Somalia being more Somalia)
Forecasting conflict in Africa for 2025 is like trying to predict which volcano will erupt next. Here’s what might bubble over:
Sudan could see its conflict between the SAF and RSF intensify, potentially splitting the country like a banana, reminiscent of Libya’s saga. This could spread like wildfire or drag in neighbours.
Ethiopia and Eritrea might clash, especially over that contentious port access, potentially destabilising the whole region.
The Eastern DRC’s ongoing saga with various militia groups could see new chapters or alliances, possibly leading to broader conflict if diplomacy fails.
The spread of militant groups in the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, could spill into neighbouring states, creating new hotspots if these groups gain more ground.
Somalia, with its complex geopolitics, could become a battleground for regional and international chess games, especially if Al-Shabaab gains more traction or clan conflicts escalate.
These forecasts rest on current trends, but with diplomacy, policy shifts, or new alliances, anything can change.
WHICH technological breakthroughs are likely to come out of Africa in 2025, and in which countries are these innovations likely to happen?
(Expect some delight from the usual suspects Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa)
Kenya has been at the forefront with innovations which use AI to connect farmers directly with vendors. In 2025, we might see more advanced AI solutions like real-time crop health assessment via drones or internet of things (IoT) sensors, possibly from companies like FarmDrive or new startups focusing on precision agriculture.
Nigeria’s vibrant fintech scene could lead to a significant blockchain innovation for financial inclusion. With the adoption of cryptocurrencies and mobile money, innovations like a national blockchain-based identity system or decentralised finance platforms tailored for the unbanked could emerge from startups like SureRemit or new ventures.
South Africa’s established tech sector, combined with its energy challenges, could foster breakthroughs in renewable energy. Discovery Green is already working on renewable energy platforms, and in 2025, we might see significant advancements in green hydrogen production or new solar technologies for industrial use.
Rwanda has made strides in drone technology for medical delivery with Zipline. In 2025, innovations might expand to AI-assisted diagnostics or telemedicine platforms that are more accessible in remote areas, potentially through partnerships or expansions of existing initiatives like FlexiGyn for gynecological care.
Ghana’s focus on digital literacy could lead to breakthroughs in edtech. Innovations might include solar-powered educational devices or AI-driven personalised learning platforms for offline use in rural areas, building on efforts like the Ghana Learning TV initiative but with enhanced technology for broader reach.
With Addis Ababa’s rapid urbanisation, Ethiopia could see innovations in smart city technologies. This might include IoT solutions for traffic management, waste management, or public safety, possibly through partnerships with companies like Atos or local tech hubs.
Senegal, with its growing tech ecosystem, could introduce breakthroughs in mobile technology, particularly in extending internet access to remote areas. Innovations might involve new satellite or mesh network technologies to overcome traditional infrastructure limitations.
The actual innovations that come to fruition will depend on various factors including investment, policy support, and the entrepreneurial spirit of the local tech communities.
WHICH African economies are likely to turn in sterling performances in 2025. Where might a surprise come from?
(Rich mix of junta-led Niger, Ethiopia, Libya, Senegal, Rwanda)
Niger, under military rule, might be the dark horse, with its oil wealth and infrastructure projects pushing it forward.
Senegal, with its stable politics and hydrocarbon boom, is pegged for economic growth.
Libya, despite its rollercoaster politics, could see an economic revival with oil production picking up.
Rwanda’s economic diversification and smart investments keep it on the top performers list.
Côte d’Ivoire’s growth is fueled by infrastructure and a business-friendly environment.
Ethiopia’s massive market and industrial focus could keep it a growth powerhouse.
These forecasts are based on stability, resources, investment, and reforms, but economic fortunes can change with global shifts or local surprises.
WHICH climate events could be cause for worry in Africa in 2025? Which countries are likely to be most affected?
(Niger, Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Mali, Uganda, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, DRC, Tanzania shouldn’t sleep with both their eyes closed)
Niger is expected to face severe flooding due to changes in the Niger River’s volume, which has already shrunk significantly over the decades.
With its high vulnerability to floods, particularly during the rainy seasons, Kenya is likely to see more intense flood events.
Cities like Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos are at risk due to sea-level rise and heavy rainfall, leading to coastal flooding.
Already grappling with drought, Ethiopia could see an intensification of these conditions, particularly in the Horn of Africa.
Continued and worsening drought conditions are predicted for Somalia, exacerbating the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Regions like Cape Town in South Africa might face severe water scarcity issues, potentially repeating the “Day Zero” water crisis scenario.
With temperatures already high, an increase in extreme heat and heatwaves in Mali could lead to significant health and agricultural impacts.
Uganda is predicted to experience more frequent heatwaves, impacting both human health and crop yields.
The Sahel region, including Burkina Faso, is expected to see temperatures rise, further straining resources and livelihoods.
Already at war, changes in Sudan’s rainfall patterns could lead to decreased agricultural productivity.
These climate predictions are based on models and trends, with outcomes influenced by global action, local adaptation, and unpredictable weather events.
ON the brighter side, which are some of the most anticipated books by African authors in 2025 that one should plan to buy?
(The return of Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, and offerings by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Amma Darko, Pumla Dineo, Safiya Sinclair, Chimeka Garricks)
“Dream Count” by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie: A tale of four Nigerian women, exploring love and motherhood, marking her return after a 12-year literary silence.
“The Edge of Water” by Olu Grace Bankole: A novel set before Hurricane Katrina, weaving a tale of prophecy and peril.
“Beyond the Horizon” by Amma Darko: Continuing her legacy of confronting societal issues through storytelling.
“Female Fear Factory” by Pumla Dineo: A deep dive into the psychology of fear among women.
“How to Say Babylon” by Safiya Sinclair: A poetic exploration of identity and culture.
“A Broken People’s Playlist” by Chimeka Garricks: A symphony of stories about a society pieced together by music.
“Under the Udala Trees” by Chinelo Okparanta: A potential re-release or special edition of this acclaimed work.
These books promise to be a feast for those hungry for narratives that reflect and challenge the tapestry of African life and beyond.
